The United States is heading into an economic storm

If managed properly, these challenges have the potential to reshape work and provide far greater productivity, wages, and opportunities – something the information revolution promised but never delivered. If we manage this moment poorly, it could lead to a scarcity of good, well-paying jobs and make the economy less dynamic. Our decisions over the next five to ten years will determine the path we take.

Our dysfunctional political system, which is increasingly short-term in its vision for the country, is unlikely to prepare us for these changes. Neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump are seriously focusing on them in their election campaigns. We also do not see comprehensive plans from either party to make the necessary investments to prepare the American workforce to face the challenges ahead.

The U.S. workforce has never been this aging before. In 2000, there were about 27 Americans Over 65 for every 100 working-age Americans (ages 20-49). In 2020, this number rose to 39. In 2040, it will rise to 54. Since these changes are mainly due to declining fertility, the country's working population will soon begin to grow more slowly. If immigration to the United States is reduced, as seems likely whoever wins the election, this will only exacerbate the problem of aging.

Many jobs in the economy, such as manufacturing and construction, require physical strength and stamina, which begins to decline as a person ages, even with the health improvements we have seen. Usually workers Reach maximum productivity by age 40. Young people are too More entrepreneurs They are more willing to take risks, which many economies, including the United States, urgently need.

Over the past three decades, Japan, Germany, and South Korea have been aging twice as fast as the United States is now, which means we have role models. The good news is that their economies have not I slept more slowly Compared to those in other industrialized countries, many of its labor-intensive sectors, such as automobiles, machine tools, and chemicals, did not suffer.